Methodology

Transparent approach to signals and forecasting

Data Sources

All forecasts are built on verified, public data sources:

Data is collected daily and stored with full version history for audit purposes.

Signal Generation

Signals (bullish/neutral/bearish) are derived from multiple technical indicators:

Momentum Analysis

Compares recent price movement (7-day average) against the previous period (7-14 days back). Momentum scores above 0.6 indicate bullish conditions; below 0.4 indicates bearish.

Trend Detection

Uses moving average crossovers: when short-term averages (7 days) cross above long-term averages (14 days), it signals upward momentum. The reverse indicates downward pressure.

Volatility Assessment

Measures price standard deviation relative to mean (coefficient of variation). High volatility indicates unstable conditions; low volatility suggests consolidation.

Confidence Levels

  • High: Clear directional momentum (>0.7 or <0.3) with aligned trend indicators
  • Medium: Moderate momentum (0.4-0.6) or mixed signals
  • Low: Insufficient historical data or conflicting indicators

Forecast Models

Price forecasts combine statistical methods with volatility adjustment:

Linear Regression Trend

Uses the past 30 days to establish a baseline trend line. Extends the trend forward to generate point predictions for 30 and 90 days ahead.

Volatility Bands

Calculates standard deviation of recent prices to establish confidence ranges. Bands widen for longer-term forecasts to reflect increased uncertainty.

Confidence Intervals

95% statistical intervals based on historical residual error. If recent predictions consistently fall within these ranges, confidence increases.

What This Approach Does NOT Do

This system is designed for medium-term visibility (30-90 days) in markets sensitive to global instability. It prioritizes transparency over complexity.

Updates & Maintenance

Daily: Price and indicator updates

Weekly: Signal generation and forecast refresh

Monthly: Track record evaluation and methodology refinement

Open Questions

Forecasting is inherently uncertain. I track what works and what doesn't on the Track Record page, including misses and lessons learned.

Signal Glossary

Plain-language definitions for every term used across the dashboard.

Signal Type

  • Bullish — Momentum and trend indicators both point upward. Price likely to rise in the near term.
  • Bearish — Momentum and trend point downward. Price likely to fall.
  • Neutral — Indicators are mixed or consolidating. No clear directional edge.

Confidence Level

  • High — Momentum above 0.7 or below 0.3, with aligned trend and low noise. Strong directional signal.
  • Medium — Moderate momentum (0.4–0.6) or mixed indicators. Direction is probable but not certain.
  • Low — Insufficient historical data or conflicting indicators. Treat as directional awareness only.

Momentum Score

The ratio of the recent 7-day average price to the prior 7-day average. A score of 1.0 means no change. Above 0.6 signals bullish pressure building. Below 0.4 signals bearish pressure. The 0.4–0.6 range is the neutral consolidation zone.

Volatility

Coefficient of variation over 30 days — standard deviation divided by the mean price. High means price swings are large relative to the current price level. Low means the market is stable and consolidating. High volatility widens forecast confidence bands.

Forecast Range

The 95% statistical confidence interval around the forecast. There is a 95% probability the actual price will land within this range, based on historical residual error patterns. Ranges widen for 90-day forecasts to reflect greater uncertainty over longer horizons.